予測＆分析システム「トレンドトラップver1.0」販売開始しました。
Insight from data science: データサイエンスからインサイトをあなたの手に！
需要予測＆データ分析システム「トレンドトラップVer1.0」を2013年06月1日付けで販売開始いたしました。
全社・全店舗の売上実績やPOSデータなど大量データをもとに日次・週次・月次単位で品目階層×ロケーション階層（拠点別）に需要予測を自動処理するサーバー版です。
- windows7または8,8.1などの64bit版をインストールしてあるPC,タブレット
- SQL Server2014、2012のDBが必要です
- Microsoft .NET Framework 4.5をインストールする必要があります
Our products was born.
While this is one small step for data science, It is a historical step in our company.And, it is going to be a step towards opening up the future of the human race to infinity.
トレンドトラップver1.0を活用して以下のような問題・悩みを解決できます
- 在庫を適正化したい
- 年度予算編成を中期＿販売予測に基づいた検討に変え、月次の予算進捗管理をローリング予測にそって見直したい
- 発注前の販売見込みを計算したり、まとめる作業を軽減したい
- 現状の予測システムがうまく使われていない
- 販社からの発注のブレ幅が大きすぎて生産計画が平準化できない
- 多品種少量品が多くて、ふつうに販売予測してもあたらない
- 旧製品を販売中止して、新製品を立ち上げるのに両方とも見込み精度が悪く、工場が混乱し、廃棄ロスが発生する
- 店舗の時間単位の売れ筋ベスト１０を予測して、惣菜売り場などの仕込みを適正化し廃棄ロスを軽減したい
■トレンドトラップver1.0では過去データさえあればお手軽に需要予測をスタートできます
■予測ロジックに万能選手はいません
－そこで、トレンドトラップでは複数予測ロジックをひとつの品番に対して適用し、同時に予測計算を実行します
*以下の7つはその代表的なものです
○過去の売上・出荷実績さえあれば予測できるロジック
－1.GARCHモデル：リーマンショックなどの大きな変動にも対応する最新予測ロジック *ボックスジェンキンスモデルを進化させて変動幅（ボラティリティ）じたいを予測するロジック
－2.ボックス・ジェンキンスモデル：過去データの自己相関を利用して過去の変化パターンを自動的に予測に取り込みます
*モデルの構築は完全に自動化してあります
－3.ウインターズモデル：周期性、トレンド、水準を過去データから自動計算して予測します
－4.クロストン周期性モデル:「0,0,0,123,0,0,359,0,0,0,532,0,0・・」など、しばしば売れない期間が続き、急に売れたりする間欠（離散型）需要に対応する予測ロジック
－5.自己相関予測モデル：安定した変動幅の中での需要予測モデル
○客数や気温など売上や出荷に因果関係の強い変数データを利用して予測するロジック
－6.重回帰予測：「自動車メーカーなどが提供する”内示”情報に基づいた予測」や「店舗のPOSデータに加えて”客数”や”PIデータ”などに基づいた予測」を行う際に多用されている＊
－7.リッジ-ロバスト回帰：№５の重回帰予測が「キャーンペーンの有無」「価格（商品売価）」などをそのまま使用する際に、しばしば起こす多重共線問題に対応しています
【超多品種少量品を販売されているお客様へ】
- トレンドトラップ需要予測システムでは300万品番を超える品番数を抱える特注品対応の企業様との実データ検証をふまえてSQL Server2014のインメモリー処理を活用したり、No-SQLという高速データベースを採用し予測処理、レポート作成時間を短縮するよう工夫をこらしています。
- 300万品番を日次単位で過去365日さかのぼって計算し、未来を30日間＿日次予測すると11億8500万件のビッグデータ予測処理を実行しなければなりません。
- その大半が実績”0”でうめつくされているのが実情です。たいていは予測処理しても平均値が”0”ですから無意味な予測処理になりがちです。私たちはビッグデータ対応とともに超多品種少量出荷にも対応できる予測ロジックをご用意しております。
【多店舗 展開されているお客様へ】
- 1000店舗を超える店舗展開をされ、多くの商品を販売されているお客さまの悩みは、「本部バイヤー主導商品の展開」と「売り場主導の品揃え」をバランスよく欠品なく維持管理することではないでしょうか？
- トレンドトラップ需要予測システムでは、「本部バイヤー」様の視点で商品軸で全店舗を予測し、カテゴリー毎に未来の売れ筋“ベスト10”を見える化し、その売れ筋商品の販売予測を即座に実行し、さらにその”ベスト10”商品にひっぱられて売れている相関関係の高い商品ランキングをレポートできます
- 売り場の品揃えは臨機応変です。店頭に並べる商材、POP,レジ前のコーナー陳列に何を置くかでも売上は変わります。売り場を熟知したマネージャー様の勘を統計予測が瞬時に数値化します。昨日対比／先週対比／昨年同一日対比～PB/NB構成比変化～客数・客単価の変化～曜日と客数パターンから予測など「差異を見る」＋「変化を診る」＋「パターンを見出す」ことをシステムがサポートします
貴社の実際のデータで検証してみませんか？お問い合わせはこちらへどうぞ！
You can start demand forecast easily if you have past data.
There is no all-rounder in prediction logic
- We run the predictive calculation at the same time to a single item number multiple prediction logic in our trend trap system.
* The following sevens are typical logic.
○ logic that it is possible to predict if they have sales and shipments in the past
-GARCH model :
- Box Jenkins Method:
○ logic to predict by using the variable data a strong causal relationship to sales and shipping , such as temperature and the number of customers
- Multiple regression prediction
- Ridge – robust regression
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